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Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Gold, Precious Metals, Commodities

October 3rd, 2004

Written by Matthew Frailey - matt@breakpointtrades.net


Table of Contents:

- US Dollar

- Gold Metal, and Silver

- Corresponding Stocks

- Commodities

- Analysis of 45 gold stocks on multiple time frames - WOW!!!

US Dollar:

When discussing gold and precious metals, the US Dollar is paramount and holds nearly all the power over the direction of gold, thus it should be discussed first and foremost. Eventually, gold will move up regardless of what the Dollar does, but at this point in time, the two are still linked closely together in an inverse correlation.

The Dollar below appears to have broken a symmetrical triangle to the downside which is extremely bearish for the Dollar, while extremely bullish for gold, precious metals, and corresponding stocks.

The Dollar is beginning to break down as the support uptrend line has been broken, however the important support is at 87 at the bottom of the gold band below. If 87 fails to hold, then the Dollar will technically be in another downtrend and a test of the early 2004 lows near 85 will be imminent. This of course will have extremely bullish implications for gold and precious metals, commodities, and corresponding stocks.

Gold stocks have really been on a tear lately, and are getting a little ahead of themselves in the short term, as they have run up in anticipation of the Dollar breaking down.

Realize that the broken uptrend line below on the Dollar could be retested on a bounce - support is often retested shortly after it has been broken. If the Dollar does bounce to retest support, then gold stocks will likely pullback which would give a great opportunity to go long and load up once again.

Further expanding the Dollar chart confirms the important symmetrical triangle. Whenever a symmetrical triangle is broken, a large price movement usually results in the corresponding direction, equal to roughly the height of the triangle.

Currently, the triangle in the Dollar appears to have broken to the downside which is fantastically bullish for gold.

For you gold bugs out there, a breach of 87 will set fourth a powerful rally in gold and precious metals that will last many months.

Pullbacks in gold and precious metals stocks are buyable and give opportunities to load up in preparation for the next runup. Remember, in bull markets, it is profitable to buy on pullbacks.

The inverted Dollar chart below is simply another way to look at the Dollar. On an inverted chart, up is really down and down is really up. This is one pretty triangle and it's currently breaking to the upside, which is very bearish for the Dollar and bullish for precious metals and corresponding stocks.

Gold Metal

Just like the Dollar, gold metal has logically consolidated into a symmetrical triangle and is breaking out the upside. This chart of gold looks extremely bullish and the first target is the high set back in April of about 435.

Notice how gold seems to consolidate into symmetrical triangles prior to large price appreciations? This is likely the beginning of a large rally and a great time to load up on the metal. Remember, technical analysis shows us that symmetrical triangle breakouts tend to produce large movements in the direction of the breakout.

The first target is about 435, and the longer term target is about $500!!! A big move is upon us folks.

The next chart is essentially the same chart as above, but plotted on a logarithmic scale. The chart below is as pretty as a supermodel. Notice how the logarithmic scale shows us that the uptrend line was never broken and stayed intact during major pullbacks which occured over the last couple of years.

The chart also shows you why it is sometimes important to look at a stock or index using a logarithmic scale: For example, an uptrend line cannot be drawn connecting the lows on the linear chart above, but the logarithmic scale below allows us to do this.

Gold metal looks fantastic on a long term basis: The chart below shows us that gold has strong resistance near in the gold band region, but once this is traversed, a price target of $500 should be easy to hit. Currently, gold looks like it may be forming a bullish cup and handle.

Gold likely entered a Secular Bull Market when it broke the downtrend line and ended it's long 20 year Secular Bear Market. Remember, secular bull markets last about 10-20 years on average, which means gold will do well for years to come!

Silver Metal:

Logically, Silver looks good and has consolidated into a nice pattern after the technical breakdown in April. Silver has consolidated into an ascending triangle with clean resistance at about 7. A longer term price target would be about $8.5, however the gap between $7.5 and $8 will be hard to overcome on the first attempt.

Gold Stocks:

The chart below is the HUI/Gold metal ratio: This chart shows that gold stocks are currently out performing gold metal. This chart is a great indicator and can be used to know when to go long or sell gold stocks:

When the trend is up, it is a good time to buy and hold gold stocks. When the trend is down, you should sell gold stocks. Notice how the indicator broke the downtrend line in mid August, this was a BIG signal to go long gold stocks.

However, currently, the ratio is going a little parabolic and may pullback soon.  I would use any pullback as an opportunity to load up on gold stocks in preparation for the next big runup.

Below is a chart of the HUI plotted on the same time frame as the ratio above. You can compare and see for yourself that the major rallies in the HUI match up well with the ratio.

The HUI, Gold Bugs Index has been on a tear and the first target is $240. I would use this area as a place to take some profits, but I would also use any pullback as an opportunity to load up on gold stocks as the trend is now up and may stay up for many months, especially if the Dollar breaks 87. The first target is about $240, the 2nd target is about $250, and after that it's off to new highs.

Here's another supermodel chart, the HUI on a long term weekly basis: The HUI has broken a bullish flag to the upside on the weekly chart and may be embarking on a long term rally, depending on the US Dollar.

Palladium Update:

Palladium was a major mover for us early this year as it ran from about $225 to about $330.

Currently, a very bullish scenario is setting up with Palladium as it has broken a downtrend resistance line after finding support at about $200.

There are essentially two major palladium stocks, PAL and SWC. However, out of the two, I prefer the chart of SWC.

SWC has a well defined downtrend line that is on the verge of breaking to the upside. The first price target would be about $17.5 on a breakout.

However, the long term chart of SWC is what really stands out for me:

SWC has formed a beautiful symmetrical triangle and has a huge long term upside potential of about $40 and an intermediate upside potential of about $24.

Commodities:

The CRB is a composite of 17 commodities and is on the verge of breaking out to the upside, resistance is at 285. This chart bodes well for stocks which are commodity based such as precious metals, and utility stocks.

The big picture chart of the CRB shows us that commodities entered a long term secular bull market in late 2003 when the downtrend line was broken. Currently, the CRB is flirting with resistance near 285, however the next target is about 335!!!

This is not good for the world economy in the long term and inflation has to be just down the road for the US Economy. When the price of commodities goes up, the price of everything logically has to go up as well because everything is made up of raw materials. In the long term, I can't see how inflation cannot enter the US Market in a big way.

Copper metal looks wildly bullish as it has broken out of a symmetrical triangle and is currently at resistance near $140. Copper stocks look good as well and my favorites are PD (which should hit $100 easily), FCX, PCU, WLV, RTP, MAD - well....in reality they're all good!

Of course, the king commodity of them all is crude oil. Crude oil has been on a tear, but is overbought in he short term and I would not be surprised if it pulls back here. However, oil is in a strong uptrend that will likely last for some time, a pullback will likely be temporary.

The long term chart of oil is one scary chart: Based on this chart, I think $60+ could be in store for the future. However, this is a long term chart and pullbacks to the dotted lines could occur.

The long term uptrend line is just over $30, so it could take a long time for oil to reach $60 + if a pullback occurs.

Realize that oil is in a long term uptrend as long as the uptrend line stays intact!

We do analysis on over 45 individual gold stock:

Just click on the chart symbols in the tables below to pull up a chart from Stockcharts.com and you will find a detailed explaination right on the charts

Company Name Short Term Longer Term Big Picture Other Info
Agnico Eagle Mines
AEM AEM    
Anglo American
-
 Seems to be a total resourse stock
Apex Silver Mines
SIL  - Silver
Apollo Gold
AGT - -  
Anglogold
 
Bema Gold
 
Compania Minas
 
Caledonia Mining
CALVF -  
Capital Gold
CGLD -  -  
Canyon Resources
CAU CAU CAU  
Cambior
CBJ CBJ CBJ  
Crystallex Intl Corp.
KRY      
Coeur D Alene Mines
CDE CDE CDE Gold, Silver
Central Fund of Canada
CEF  - CEF  
Durban Roodeport Deep
DROOY DROOY DROOY  
Eldorado Gold
EGO  -  -  
Freeport McMoran
FCX  - FCX Gold & Copper
Gammon Lake Res.
GRS - -  
Gold Fields
GFI GFI GFI  
Goldcorp
GG GG  
Glamis Gold
GLG - GLG  
Golden Phoenix Minerals
GPXM - -  
Gold Reserve
GRZ - GRZ  
GoldSpring
GSPG GSPG -  
Golden Star Resources
GSS GSS GSS  
Great Basin Gold
GBN  - -  
Hecla Mining
HL HL HL Gold and Silver 
Harmony Gold
HMY  - HMY  
Iamgold
IAG  -  
Kinross Gold
KGC KGC KGC  
Meridian Gold
MDG  - MDG  
Minefinders Corp.
MFN      
Miramar Mining
MNG  - MNG  
Newmont Mining
NEM NEM NEM  
Northgate Exploration
NXG - NXG great fundamentals
Pan American Silver
PAAS - PAAS Silver
Placer Dome
PDG PDG  
Pacific Rim Mining
PMU - PMU  
Silver Standard
SSRI - SSRI Silver
Randgold Resources
GOLD -  
Rangold Exploration
RANGY RANGY RANGY  
Rio Narcea Gold Mines
RNO - - A new one with strong fundamentals,
Royal Gold
RGLD - RGLD  
Richmont Mines
RIC - RIC  
Vista Gold
VGZ VGZ VGZ  
Western Silver Corp.
WTZ      
Wheaton River Minerals
WHT - WHT Gold, Silver, other Metals 
Yamana Gold
AUY - - Awesome Fundamentals

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